The Israeli governments stated aims in the Gaza war are to get all hostages rescued or released, prevent an another October 7th happening, and eliminate Hamas as a supposed threat to Israel’s existence.
Aim is Getting All Hostages Back? – A Lie
Since Hamas took hostages, as in the past, to trade them for Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli prisons, no war’s needed to get them released. And Hamas has no motive to release more hostages as long as the Israeli government says it will continue the war in Gaza to “eliminate Hamas” even if all hostages were released in more temporary ceasefires. Which is why Hamas has said, for three months now, that they’ll only resume hostage negotiations if IDF attacks on Gaza end and the IDF withdraws from Gaza (1) – (3).
Since Netanyahu says an offensive on Rafah would only be delayed, not cancelled, by further hostage releases, this also makes the stories about hostage negotiations currently progressing just propaganda, so Biden and Netanyahu can say “we tried, but Hamas rejected a ceasefire” and resume the war to replace Hamas as the government of Gaza, at any cost in the lives of civilians and children (4).
What’s more the IDF in its 4 month war , while killing over 10,000 Palestinian children, and blowing the limbs off of, and/or orphaning many more, has killed at least as many hostages as it’s rescued (three). Flooding tunnels with sea water and razing entire neighbourhoods doesn’t suggest concern for either the lives of hostages or Palestinian civilians either. The mother of one hostage whose body was found along with another hostage in a tunnel by the IDF also says the IDF won’t tell her exactly how he died and says they gassed the tunnel (5) – (7).
It's completely wrong for Hamas to hold civilians, let alone children and ill elderly people hostage. Arguably the soldiers among the hostages could be prisoners of war who it would be legitimate to exchange for Palestinian prisoners. But the Israeli government is giving it no incentive to release any of them. So it’s clear that the hostages don’t matter much to Netanyahu or senior IDF other than for their propaganda value.
And Israel has around 9000 Palestinians in its prisons, all jailed by military courts, so little chance of a fair trial. Many haven’t had any trial at all and don’t know what they’re charged with, held indefinitely under “administrative detention”. There is much coverage of what Israeli hostages have endured, but less of Palestinian prisoners being beaten daily since October 7th, some having bones broken, and still less of at least nine having died in the past few months, often beaten to death (8) – (13).
Aim is Preventing More October Sevenths? – A Lie
Next there’s preventing another October seventh and removing the supposedly “existential” threat Hamas poses to Israel. This again, wouldn’t require any war, as the October 7th attacks couldn’t have happened if Netanyahu and senior IDF hadn’t dismissed multiple intelligence reports. Hamas trained for months in open air camps. Hamas TV showed a dramatization of their armed wing attacking Kibbutz and military bases near the Gaza border , and Hamas leader Yayha Sinwar in the same programme said that was exactly what Hamas were planning. Israel has plenty of aerial observation drones, observation towers on the border fence, and an entire intelligence unit of Arabic speakers who can infiltrate among Palestinians (14) – (16).
In July 2022 two Israeli military intelligence officers submitted a report titled “Hamas’ Mass Invasion Plan’ detailing pretty much everything that would happen. Their superiors dismissed it. In the months and days before the attacks, Israeli military border observers reported greatly increased activity by armed groups, including members of them near the border fence looking at maps and pointing to parts of the fence. Their commanders ignored these reports (17) – (19).
And in the ten days before the attack Egyptian ministers repeatedly phoned Netanyahu to pass on reports from Egyptian intelligence that Gazan armed groups were planning something “big”, “unusual” and “horrible”. Despite this Netanyahu’s government made no preparations, moved two commando units from the Gaza area to the West Bank, and let most of the military go on holiday anyway (20) – (21)
Aim is “Eliminating Hamas” as “an existential threat to Israel” ? –
An impossibility and a lie
Finally there’s eliminating Hamas. Now it’s quite possible Israel, if the IDF reoccupied Gaza permanently, could remove Hamas from government in Gaza. However the Israeli government says it’s not going to have a permanent occupation, which would make that impossible.
Even IDF intelligence assesses that, after the war, Hamas will at the least continue to exist as a “terrorist or guerrilla group”, as it existed before the 2006 Palestinian Authority Legislative elections, and before Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from Gaza in 2005 (Which was only done in return for the US privately telling Israel it could forget about any Palestinian state or peace process, paving the way for more settlers and Sharon and Netanyahu’s West Bank annexations) (22) – (24).
There is no way to prevent all terrorist attacks , which can be carried out with a knife, truck, car, small amounts of explosives etc. And since Hamas’ arms are mostly limited to automatic rifles, RPGs and home made rockets, it could easily smuggle more of those into Gaza and the West Bank in the long run.
On top of that there is also a Hamas presence in Lebanon (many of Hezbollah’s recruits also being the descendants of Palestinian refugees refused citizenship there) and its political leadership in Qatar.
So “eliminating Hamas” is neither possible, nor necessary to protect Israel’s existence, which, as the strongest military in the middle East, with the US superpower as an ally and the majority of Arab states at peace with and quietly allied to it for decades (Jordan, Egypt, Saudi, the majority of the “gulf monarchies), isn’t at threat.
The IDF (Israeli military or ‘Israeli Defence Forces’) has 169,000 full time troops, 400,00 reservists, hundreds of advanced combat aircraft and thousands of tanks, APCs and mobile artillery pieces, plus lots of night vision gear. Hamas and every Palestinian armed group combined, with numbers in the tens of thousands and little but automatic rifles, RPGs and some home made rockets, are not remotely capable of defeating them as every one sided Gaza war and even October 7th once the IDF counter-attacked show (25).
Even unprepared, the IDF said on October 10th 2023 that it had identified the bodies of 1,500 attackers killed in Israel. Israeli government spokesman Mark Regev in a later interview said 200 more burnt bodies originally thought to be victims of Hamas were found to be Hamas attackers (watch video from 6 minutes 25 seconds).The IDF also captured many of the attackers in Israel. Since it estimates the attackers numbers at 3000, that means that it killed or captured most of them in Israel, the rest fleeing back to Gaza. Hamas killed about 300 IDF soldiers on October 7th, most just border observers, and captured a few dozen. So in Hamas’ greatest ever “success” against an IDF unprepared by its own government and senior officers ignoring intelligence reports, Hamas’ losses were 6 times the IDF’s (26) – (29).
The idea that Hamas, or every Palestinian armed group combined, could ever defeat the IDF is ludicrous. Even if Hezbollah and Iran were to get involved, Israel would still outmatch all of these combined. And the US superpower would get involved, which is another reason Iran doesn’t want to go to war with Israel.
The Real Aims of The War
The real aims of the war are first to “re-establish deterrence” as Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said on 10th October 2023, via the Dahiya doctrine. Israeli political and military leaders believe that inflicting massive levels of casualties, suffering and destruction not just on combatants but on civilian populations and infrastructure will terrify their enemies into not attacking Israel again. Few seem to worry about it also creating hatred, anger and a desire for revenge (30).
Second to remove Hamas, as an ally of Iran, from being one half of the elected government of the Palestinian Authority, an aim of Israel and its allies since the 2006 PA legislative elections, but one which, until now, was sometimes over ridden by the wish to keep Palestinians divided.
Third to keep Netanyahu and his coalition and senior IDF officers in position in the hope public opinion will turn back in their favour after their negligence in dismissing intelligence reports.
What’s The Realistic Alternative To The Gaza War
So what is a viable way to end the conflict?
The best chance of ending terrorist attacks by Palestinians against Israelis has always been to give Palestinians their own state. While the media and politicians regularly repeat that Hamas “refuses to recognise Israel’s right to exist”, Israel has never accepted a real Palestinian state with any sovereignty had a right to exist. It’s only offers of “a state” have been one with no military, whose borders and airspace would be controlled by the Israeli military, who could enter this state’s “territory” at will.
And Hamas did repeatedly offer negotiations on a decade long truce (Hudna – usually leading to permanent peace) with Israel in return for a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. A former head of Mossad, Efraim Halevy, repeatedly said Hamas knew it could never defeat Israel militarily, and Israel should try negotiations, having nothing to lose since it would remain massively militarily stronger whatever the result (31) – (34).
Shlomo Gazit, a former head of Israel’s Shin Bet military intelligence called Israeli government’s precondition of full recognition before talks even began “ridiculous or an excuse not to negotiate” (35).
And in any case, what does formal recognition matter, if there was peace rather than killing by both sides?
Since every Israeli government, of every party, seems to either oppose even a pretend Palestinian state, or oppose a real one, and Israel is massively militarily stronger than the Palestinians, the only way to get any Israeli government to accept a sovereign Palestinian state in the whole West Bank and Gaza is by external pressure – i.e boycotts of Israel products, divestment (companies stopping investing in Israel) and/or sanctions by governments. The official BDS campaign may aim at a one state solution of the type that ended South African Apartheid. But the more likely result if such a campaign was successful would be two states, so you can support a BDS campaign and support a two state solution.
Saying you “support a two state solution” while opposing any pressure on the massively stronger side to allow one is like saying you support peoples’ right to fly to America, so long as they do it only by flapping their arms.
Sources
(1) = www.theguardian.com 22 Nov2023 ‘Benjamin Netanyahu warns war will continue until Hamas is eliminated’,
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/22/gaza-ceasefire-due-to-come-into-effect-on-thursday-morning
(2) = Jerusalem Post website 20 Feb 2024 ‘US envoy heads to Israel, Egypt for talks on Rafah, Gaza hostages’,
https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-787997
(3) = Times of Israel website 21 Dec 2023 ‘Hamas says no hostage negotiations unless fighting in Gaza stops; Israel: No chance’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-says-no-hostage-negotiations-unless-fighting-in-gaza-stops-israel-no-chance/
(4) = Times of Israel 17 Feb 2024 ‘PM: IDF will operate in Rafah even if there is a new hostage deal; can’t leave a quarter of Hamas intact’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/pm-stonewalls-when-asked-why-idf-didnt-enter-rafah-at-outset-of-ground-offensive/
(5) = Jerusalem Post website 16 Dec 2023 ‘Three hostages mistakenly killed by IDF fire screamed ‘help,’ held white flag’,
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-778272
(6) = Times of Israel website 30 Jan 2024 ‘IDF confirms flooding Hamas tunnels in Gaza with seawater’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-confirms-flooding-hamas-tunnels-in-gaza-with-seawater/
(7) = Times Of Israel website 17 Jan 2024 ‘IDF says remains of recovered hostages show they were not killed in strike’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-says-remains-of-recovered-hostages-show-they-were-not-killed-in-airstrike/
(8) = Hamoked Center For the Defense Of The Individual ‘8,926 "Security" Inmates Are Held In Prisons Inside Israel’,
https://hamoked.org/prisoners-charts.php#
(9) = B’Tselem ‘The Military Courts’,
https://www.btselem.org/topic/military_courts
(10) = B’TSelem ‘Administrative Detention’,
https://www.btselem.org/administrative_detention
(11) = BBC News 01 Dec 2023 ‘Released Palestinians allege abuse in Israeli jails’,
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67581915
(12) = Times Of Israel website 21 Feb 2024 ‘Palestinian terror convict dies in Israeli custody under undisclosed circumstances’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/palestinian-terror-convict-dies-in-israeli-custody-under-unclear-circumstances/
(13) = Times Of Israel website 21 Dec 2023 ‘Police question 19 guards in connection with fatal beating of Palestinian prisoner’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/police-question-19-guards-in-connection-with-fatal-beating-of-palestinian-prisoner/
(14) = CNN 12 Oct 2023 ‘Hamas militants trained for its deadly attack in plain sight and less than a mile from Israel’s heavily fortified border’,
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/12/middleeast/hamas-training-site-gaza-israel-intl/index.html/
(15) = Times of Israel website 05 Dec 2023 ‘More details unveiled of IDF intel on Oct. 7 plans, consults hours before Hamas attack’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/more-details-unveiled-of-idf-intel-on-oct-7-plans-consults-hours-before-hamas-attack/
(16) = Jewish Virtual Library ‘The Mista’arvim’
https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/the-mista-arvim
(17) = See (15) above
(18) = Times Of Israel website 24 Nov 2023 ‘Reports: Senior IDF officer dismissed pre-Oct. 7 intel on Hamas invasion as ‘fantasy’’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/reports-senior-idf-officer-dismissed-pre-oct-7-intel-on-hamas-invasion-as-fantasy/
(19) = Politico EU 21 Nov 2023 ‘Our warnings on Hamas were ignored, Israel’s women border troops say’,
https://www.politico.eu/article/israel-border-troops-women-hamas-warnings-war-october-7-benjamin-netanyahu/
(20) = Times Of Israel website 09 Oct 2023 ‘Egypt intelligence official says Israel ignored repeated warnings of ‘something big’’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/egypt-intelligence-official-says-israel-ignored-repeated-warnings-of-something-big/
(21) = see (15) above
(22) = Times of Israel website 16 Feb 2024 ‘Report: IDF intel assesses that Hamas will ‘survive as terror group’ post-war’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-idf-intel-assesses-that-hamas-will-survive-as-terror-group-post-war/
(23) = Haaretz website 06 Oct 2004 ‘Top PM Aide: Gaza Plan Aims to Freeze the Peace Process’,
https://www.haaretz.com/2004-10-06/ty-article/top-pm-aide-gaza-plan-aims-to-freeze-the-peace-process/0000017f-e56c-dea7-adff-f5ff1fc40000
(24) = PBS 28 Dec 2022 ‘Netanyahu’s government vows to expand West Bank settlements, annex occupied territory’,
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/netanyahus-government-vows-to-expand-west-bank-settlements-annex-occupied-territory
(25) = France 24/AP 16 Oct 2023 ‘The Israel-Hamas military balance’,
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231016-the-israel-hamas-military-balance
(26) = France24/AFP 15 Dec 2023 ‘Israel social security data reveals true picture of Oct 7 deaths’,
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231215-israel-social-security-data-reveals-true-picture-of-oct-7-deaths
(27) = MSNBC 16 Nov 2023 ‘That was a mistake’: Mehdi challenges Israeli adviser Mark Regev on false Israeli claims’,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HD-yRuTasHU (watch from 6 minutes 25 seconds)
(28) = Times Of Israel website24 Oct 2023 ‘Kill, behead, rape: Interrogated Hamas members detail atrocities against civilians’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/kill-behead-rape-interrogated-hamas-members-detail-atrocities-against-civilians/
(29) = Times of Israel website 01 Nov 2023 ‘IDF estimates 3,000 Hamas terrorists invaded Israel in Oct. 7 onslaught’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-estimates-3000-hamas-terrorists-invaded-israel-in-oct-7-onslaught/
(30) = Times of Israel website 10 Oct 2023 ‘Gallant: Israel moving to full offense, Gaza will never go back to what it once was’,
https://www.timesofisrael.com/gallant-israel-moving-to-full-offense-gaza-will-never-go-back-to-what-it-once-was/
(31) = https://inplaceoffear.blogspot.com/2011/05/even-former-mossad-and-shin-bet-chiefs.html
(32) = Ynet news 21 Sep 2005 ‘Hamas: We'll rethink call to destroy Israel’,
https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3145475,00.html
(33) = Tuastad, Dag Henrik (2010) The Hudna: Hamas's Concept of a Long-term Ceasefire, PRIO Policy Brief, 9. Oslo: PRIO.,
https://www.prio.org/publications/7356
(34) = www.independent.co.uk 10 Jun 2015 ‘It's time for Israel to talk to Hamas, says former Mossad head’,
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/it-s-time-for-israel-to-talk-to-hamas-says-former-mossad-head-10311651.html
https://forward.com/news/10055/experts-question-wisdom-of-boycotting-hamas/
